contingent probability

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Contingent Probability (noun)

Definition: Contingent probability refers to the likelihood of an event happening, based on the condition that one or more other events have already occurred. It answers the question: "What is the chance of this happening if that has happened?"

Usage Instructions:

• You use the term "contingent probability" when you want to talk about probabilities that depend on certain conditions or events.
• It is often used in statistics, mathematics, and scenarios involving decision-making.

Example:

Imagine you have a bag with 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. If you first draw a ball and it’s red, the contingent probability of drawing another red ball next (given that the first was red) changes because there are now fewer red balls in the bag.

Advanced Usage:

In more complex situations, contingent probability can be expressed using mathematical notation and formulas, often involving Bayes' theorem, which helps to update the probability based on new evidence.

Word Variants:

• Contingent (adjective): This means depending on or conditioned by something else.
• Probability (noun): This refers to the chance or likelihood of something happening.

Different Meanings:

• Outside of mathematics, "contingent" can also mean something that is dependent on certain conditions, like a "contingent plan" which is a backup plan that only happens if something else goes wrong.

Academic

Noun

1. the probability that an event will occur given that one or more other events have occurred

Synonyms

• conditional probability